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Chapter 4. The Relationship between price and value

My Top n Quotes

• there’s no such thing as a good or bad idea regardless of price!
• Keeping this statement in mind, that the market eventually gets it right, is one of the most important things to remember when the market acts emotionally over the short term.
• The discipline that is most important is not accounting or economics, but psychology.
• Buying something for less than its value. In my opinion, this is what it’s all about—the most dependable way to make money.

Reflection

买不考虑价格的资产就是耍流氓，并且超级危险。印象里，我们老是会听到诸如xxx一直涨，xxx点刚刚起步的声音，在泡沫中，任何价格都会变得很有吸引力。这一章作者在不断的强调:

『买入价格的重要性』!

好的买进就是成功的一半，短期的价格会受到心理（psychology）和技术（technicals）的影响。正确的价值可能会迟到，却一定不会缺席。

最安全和最有潜在收益的的投资是在资产没有喜欢的时候买入，当然，这也是最难掌握的，因为：

• 第一是人的心理是难以捉摸的
• 第二是心理心理因素对其他人的影响也会反过来影响你

技术（technicals）是指强制买卖，平仓等操作。

Chapter 8. Being Attentive to Cycles

My Top n Quotes

• However, there are two concepts we can hold to with confidence:
  • Rule number one: most things will prove to be cyclical.
  • Rule number two: some of the greatest opportunities for gain and loss come when other people forget rule number one.
• Prosperity brings expanded lending, which leads to unwise lending, which produces large losses, which makes lenders stop lending, which ends prosperity, and on and on.
• We conclude that most of the time, the future will look a lot like the past, with both up cycles and down cycles.

Notes

• 市场周期是实实在在的存在的，但最终都会自修复（均值回归）
• 人们总是会认为『这次不一样』，这是很危险的

Yang 对于交易10元这个我开始还以为赚了三元，结果仔细思考貌似亏了 ，还要考虑时间成本

Yang 这就是不确定性吧昨天和你探讨的 ，1+1单纯数理角度上可以等于2，但是处理生活工作问题，由于人的不可控因素，使得等式不成立，可能大于，可能小于。

Chapter 9. Awareness of the Pendulum

My Top n Quotes

• In fact, I’ve recently boiled down the main risks in investing to two: the risk of losing money and the risk of missing opportunity
  • 08年金融危机前（05，06，07）大家害怕 missing opportunity
  • 金融危机后大家害怕 losing money
• What the wise man does in the beginning, the fool does in the end

Chapter 10. Combating negative influences

My Top n Quotes

• Many people possess the intellect needed to analyze data, but far fewer are able to look more deeply into things and withstand the powerful influence of psychology. To say this another way, many people will reach similar cognitive conclusions from their analysis, but what they do with those conclusions varies all over the lot because psychology influences them differently
• Some participate as an intellectual exercise or because it’s a good field in which to vent their competitiveness, but even they keep score in terms of money. Money may not be everyone’s goal for its own sake, but it is everyone’s unit of account. People who don’t care about money generally don’t go into investing.
• People who might be perfectly happy with their lot in isolation become miserable when they see others do better
• They ignored the fact that not all the companies could win, that there would be a lengthy shake-out period, that profitability wouldn’t come easily from providing services gratis, and that shares in money-losing companies valued at high multiples of sales (since there were no earnings) carried great danger.
• Like so many other things described in this book, there’s no simple solution: no formula that will tell you when the market has gone to an irrational extreme, no foolproof tool that will keep you on the right side of these decisions, no magic pill that will protect you against destructive emotions. As Charlie Munger says, “It’s not supposed to be easy.”

Notes

• 这一章真的非常精彩！从技术角度讲，很多人可以通过分析得出相识的认知结论，但是个体间的心理差异，承受力的不同，会导致他们在这些结论的基础上采取不同的行动。作者讲到了如下的因素：
  • 第一，对金钱的渴望，尤其是这种渴望变成贪婪的时候
  • 第二，与贪婪对应的恐惧，这不是理性，明智和风险规避，恐惧更像是恐慌
  • 第三，人们有容易放弃逻辑，历史和规范的倾向（放弃怀疑）
  • 第四，从众，而不是坚持己见，作者列举了一个非常有意思的心理测试，对一组人进行测试，让他们对看到的情况做出判断，不过其中只有一个人是被测对象，其他人都是托儿。结果被测试的对象就会处于两难境地，真正的被测对象忽略自身所见与其他人保持一致的比值很高，即使其他人明显是错误的。（羊群效应）
  • 第五，嫉妒，也许贪婪有很大的负面影响，但它也有激励人们积极进取的一面，但是与别人比较就是人的天性中危害最大的一个方面
    • 一个人在孤立的情况下感到快乐的人，当看到别人做的更好的时，可能变得痛苦不堪（看到别人赚钱比自己多，大多难以坐视不管）
  • 第六，自负
  • 第七，妥协
  • 最后作者还以90年代末的科技泡沫为例描述了上诉心理是如何影响股市的
• 那么我们要如何对待这些促使人们做出愚蠢投资的心理冲动呢？首先要认识他们，然后是要认清现实。其次是要认清现实。当然作者还提到了橡树资本管理公司里实践的Tips：
  • a strongly held sense of intrinsic value
  • insistence on acting as you should when price diverges from value
  • enough conversance with past cycles—gained at first from reading and talking to veteran investors, and later through experience—to know that market excesses are ultimately punished, not rewarded
  • a thorough understanding of the insidious effect of psychology on the investing process at market extremes
  • a promise to remember that when things seem “too good to be true,” they usually are
  • willingness to look wrong while the market goes from misvalued to more misvalued (as it invariably will), and
  • like-minded friends and colleagues from whom to gain support (and for you to support).

Chapter 13. Patient Opportunism

My Top n Quotes

• All day you wait for the pitch you like; then, when the fielders are asleep, you step up and hit it. （自然界里顶尖的捕食者也会使用同样的策略，耐心等待，然后一击致命）
• Patient opportunism, buttressed by a contrarian attitude and a strong balance sheet, can yield amazing profits during meltdowns.（总结全章again）

Notes

• 上一章提到寻找便宜货，这一章就紧接着添加限制条件，『耐心等待机会，往往是最好的策略』
• 当然，等待机会带来的负面影响就是，机会可能会被错过，特别是在繁荣时期。客户可能就会失去耐心，那应该如何应对？作者认为
  • 进行有效的客户管理，降低他们的预期
  • 相对失去失去一个获利机会，投资失败更应该引起重视
• 感叹：作者对投资者的心理剖析太深入了。。

Chapter 14. Knowing what you don’t know

My Top n Quotes

• The more we concentrate on smaller-picture things, the more it’s possible to gain a knowledge advantage. (往往也也是大多数人不擅长的事情，需要具备良好的洞察力和好奇心)
• “two things that might make you think twice about heeding the winners’ forecasts.” First, they generally failed to make accurate predictions in surveys other than the one they won. And second, half the time in the surveys they didn’t win, their forecasts were much more wrong than even the inaccurate consensus. （这句话笑死 ，俗话说，一高遮五丑，一瘦遮七丑，一富遮百丑，一胖毁所有。所以识人看物，不能只看表面）
• Acknowledging the boundaries of what you can know—and working within those limits rather than venturing beyond—can give you a great advantage.

Notes

Knowing what you don't know 中文版的翻译是认识预测的局限性，但我觉得本章的内容更像是在讨论 – 要正确认识自我，要承认自己是无知的，不能高估自己的认知和能力。

Chapter 15. Having a Sense for where we stand

My Top n Quotes

• We may never know where we’re going, but we’d better have a good idea where we are.
• The philosopher Santayana said, “Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” In very much the same way, I believe those who are unaware of what’s going on around them are destined to be buffeted by it.（反思：有多少次我们在重复犯错？）
• Simply put, we must strive to understand the implications of what’s going on around us. When others are recklessly confident and buying aggressively, we should be highly cautious; when others are frightened into inaction or panic selling, we should become aggressive. （再次强调，逆向操作）

Notes

本章提到了很多金融相关的案例，看得模模糊糊的。不过作者提到的了解自己，同时了解身边正在发生的事情是非常重要的，这一点其实是普世价值。这要求我们要丰富自己的信息来源，同时确保信息的客观性和准确性。只有这样，我们才能做出相对接近正确的判断。

Chapter 16. Appreciating the Role of luck

My Top n Quotes

• Every once in a while, someone makes a risky bet on an improbable or uncertain outcome and ends up looking like a genius. But we should recognize that it happened because of luck and boldness, not skill.
• In the short run, a great deal of investment success can result from just being in the right place at the right time. I always say the keys to profit are aggressiveness, timing and skill, and someone who has enough aggressiveness at the right time doesn’t need much skill.
• We should spend our time trying to find value among the knowable— industries, companies and securities—rather than base our decisions on what we expect from the less-knowable macro world of economies and broad market performance.