[投资最重要的事] Yang的读书笔记

Yang

Chapter 1 Second-level thinking

My Top n Quotes

The pursuit of profit has produced much of the material progress the world has enjoyed.
- 一句话道出了资本主义的核心价值观
In some pursuits, getting to the front of the pack means more schooling, more time in the gym or the library, better nutrition, more perspiration, greater stamina or better equipment. But in investing, where these things count for less, it calls for more perceptive thinking ... at what I call the second level.

Reflection

作者说投资更像是一门艺术，而不是科学，因为科学是可以被证实的，而投资却会受到人为因素的干扰，人的情绪，贪婪，恐惧。作者告诉我们要有Second-level thinking，要去思考事物的底层逻辑，不能跟风，被舆论裹挟。这其实是非常难的，要不也不会有那么多人在股市亏损得一败涂地了。如果人人都能做到，那么股市里又有谁能赚钱呢？不过，我觉得这种思考方式是非常值得学习的，它也可以应用到现实世界的方方面面，比如要学会察言观色，听懂别人字丽行间的真正意思，并给出适当的回应，比如有人Challenge你的时候，应当就事论事，而不是无脑反驳。比如恋爱中要理解对方生气的真正原因 🤣

Chapter 2 Understanding Market Efficiency

My Top n Quotes

As with most other things in my world, the answers aren’t simple ... and they’re certainly not yes or no.
Some investors can consistently outperform others. Because of the existence of (a) significant misvaluations and (b) differences among participants in terms of skill, insight and information access, it is possible for misvaluations to be identified and profited from with regularity.
in every game there’s a fish. If you’ve played for 45 minutes and haven’t figured out who the fish is, then it’s you.

Reflection

这一章作者讲了有效市场假说，包括它的历史和演变，那么市场到底是有效（Efficiency）的还是无效的（Inefficiency）？就像作者提到的，答案并不是那么简单，不是确定的yes或者no。作为一个程序员，习惯了面对if,,else,, or true & false这种非黑即白的代码，我回想了一下，写代码的过程其实是实现自己想法的过程，只有每一行代码都按预期执行，才不会出错，这是一个细活。这个工作可能会让人觉得这个世界也是yes or no就能解释了。但往往这是一种错觉，因为代码背后的决策不是非黑即白，是经过了很多思考，讨论，交流，argu的结果。可代码写久了，这种模式大概率会影响到工作之外的事情，好的方面和坏的方面都有。我回想了一下自己的投资决策，却丢掉了这种逻辑性。我发现自己是凭直觉，或者是基于一个现在想起来很容易被反驳的理由去做的决策。这很糟糕，需要去避免。

Mser

Yang 这就是不确定性吧昨天和你探讨的 😃 ，1+1单纯数理角度上可以等于2，但是处理生活工作问题，由于人的不可控因素，使得等式不成立，可能大于，可能小于。

Yang

Chapter 3. Value

My Top n Quotes

The emphasis in value investing is on tangible factors like hard assets and cash flows. Intangibles like talent, popular fashions and long-term growth potential are given less weight.
Being too far ahead of your time is indistinguishable from being wrong.

Reflection

作者告诉我们基于过去的价格走势来投资股票（所谓的动量投资）是不靠谱的，还提到98-99年的day traders的案例，交易者10元买入，11元卖出，然后24元买入，25元卖出，然后39元买入，40元卖出。看起来是赚钱了，但其实很蠢，交易者赚了3元，而不是30。

相比动量投资，价值投资（value investing）和成长型投资（growth investing）是作者所推崇的，前者关注证券的内在价值，后者关注企业的成长性。

那么如何做价值投资？作者反复提到内在价值intrinsic value，如何评估呢？作者认为有形资产（hard assets and cash flows）比无形资产（talent, popular fashions and long-term growth potential ）更重要。不过作者也承认价值投资是枯燥无味的（the dull plodding of value investing）😅

相比价值投资，成长型投资更关注它潜在价值，而不是当前价值。不过作者列举了极端的成长型投资的案例，60年代的漂亮50，现在好多公司都已经消失了。🤣

作者还给出了一些Tips

买入价格超级重要。
如果你确定了你的评估，就要坚定的持有，没有人喜欢下跌，但是如果你的预期价格是合理的，那么你就应该喜欢下跌。
买入太超前和犯错是没有区别的。
顶尖的投资者也会犯错，需要去习惯。
估价正确却不坚定地持有，用处不大。估价错误却坚定地持有，后果更糟。

TBD

了解下 Gaap

xuemei

Yang 对于交易10元这个我开始还以为赚了三元，结果仔细思考貌似亏了 🤣 ，还要考虑时间成本

Yang

Chapter 4. The Relationship between price and value

My Top n Quotes

there’s no such thing as a good or bad idea regardless of price!
Keeping this statement in mind, that the market eventually gets it right, is one of the most important things to remember when the market acts emotionally over the short term.
The discipline that is most important is not accounting or economics, but psychology.
Buying something for less than its value. In my opinion, this is what it’s all about—the most dependable way to make money.

Reflection

买不考虑价格的资产就是耍流氓，并且超级危险。印象里，我们老是会听到诸如xxx一直涨，xxx点刚刚起步的声音，在泡沫中，任何价格都会变得很有吸引力。这一章作者在不断的强调:

『买入价格的重要性』!

好的买进就是成功的一半，短期的价格会受到心理（psychology）和技术（technicals）的影响。正确的价值可能会迟到，却一定不会缺席。

最安全和最有潜在收益的的投资是在资产没有喜欢的时候买入，当然，这也是最难掌握的，因为：

第一是人的心理是难以捉摸的
第二是心理心理因素对其他人的影响也会反过来影响你

技术（technicals）是指强制买卖，平仓等操作。

Yang

Chapter 5. Understanding Risk

My Top n Quotes

Surely investors who get their statements and find that their accounts made 10 percent for the year don’t know whether their money managers did a good job or a bad one. In order to reach a conclusion, they have to have some idea about how much risk their managers took. In other words, they have to have a feeling for “risk-adjusted return.”
If the risk of loss can’t be measured, quantified or even observed—and if it’s consigned to subjectivity—how can it be dealt with? Skillful investors can get a sense for the risk present in a given situation. They make that judgment primarily based on (a) the stability and dependability of value and (b) the relationship between price and value.
If the risk of loss can’t be measured, quantified or even observed—and if it’s consigned to subjectivity—how can it be dealt with? Skillful investors can get a sense for the risk present in a given situation. They make that judgment primarily based on (a) the stability and dependability of value and (b) the relationship between price and value.

Notes

作者首先说明了风险和收益之间的关系
- 风险和收益并不是呈线性关系（这里需要在组织下语言说明一下）
- 对于投资者，单凭一个绝对收益率（比如10%的年化），并不能说明投资的好坏，需要明白他冒了多少风险。这就是说所谓的risk-adjusted return.
然后讨论了如何定义风险
- 理论认为，风险等于波动性，但是作者却不这么认为，作者觉得人们拒绝投资是因为损失或者收益低。
风险的类型
- 永久损失的风险是最令人担忧的
- 达不到预期收益（退休基金需要8%的收益，6%可能就是灾难）
- 业绩不佳
- 非常规
- 流动性低
接下来作者讨论了导致风险的原因
- 足够低的价格能抵御风险
- 如果没做研究，傲慢，不理解，都可能会导致巨大风险
- 最大的风险：过于乐观
Dull, ignored, possibly tarnished and beaten-down securities 等股票可能会带来高收益
好的投资需要分析结果的可能分布，以及分布的概率，而不是单一的结果。Probable things fail to happen—and improbable things happen—all the time

Reflection

本章比较长，很多触碰到了我的思维盲区。读下来感觉作者对风险的描述比较宏观和抽象，在没读这一章之前，我对风险的认识很局限，比如买某只股票是不是有风险。但作者会把不达目标，业绩不佳，职业风险，等也纳入到定义里，还深入探讨了风险的成因。

Yang

Chapter 6. Recognizing Risk

My Top n Quotes

Risk means uncertainty about which outcome will occur and about the possibility of loss when the unfavorable ones do.
There are few things as risky as the widespread belief that there’s no risk
She knows about a kind of moral hazard risk, where better safety gear can entice climbers to take more risk—making them in fact less safe.”
Risk cannot be eliminated; it just gets transferred and spread

Notes

作者再次强调了高价格的风险
风险识别
- 没有什么比普遍认为没有风险更有风险的事情了
- 主观的认为风险太低也会创造风险
风险不可以被排除，它只是被转移和扩散了
投资思维就像一个链条，每一项投资都是为下一项投资设定要求（最初投资的利率至关重要，就像毕业后第一份工作的工资）
高质量的资产不等于高质量的投资，因为
- 可能价格过高
- 高质量的公司只能代表现在，不能代表将来
It’s just a matter of the price paid for them. … Elevated popular opinion, then, isn’t just the source of low return potential, but also of high risk.

Yang

Chapter 7. Controlling Risk

My Top n Quotes

The important thing here is the realization that risk may have been present even though loss didn’t occur.
Bearing risk unknowingly can be a huge mistake.
a 40 percent loss in one year requires a return of 67 percent to fully recover.

Notes

伟大的投资者之所以伟大是因为他们数十年如一日的持续性，和对灾难的规避，而不是高回报（回报只是顺理成章的事情）
- 后文再次提到：获得好的回报率不一定就是优秀的投资者，做好风险控制和持续性才是（不过作者已经在开篇提醒读者原谅他的重复了 😀 ）
风险是看不到的，损失只有在风险和负面事件碰撞的时候才可见（细菌导致疾病，但细菌本身没有疾病）
需要意识到风险在损失还没有发生的时候就会存在！（在市场好的时候也要控制风险）
作者认为，以更低的风险获取同样的收益 比 以同样的风险获取更好的收益 更好
风险控制并不等于风险规避（什么都不做也是一种风险）

Yang

Chapter 8. Being Attentive to Cycles

My Top n Quotes

However, there are two concepts we can hold to with confidence:
- Rule number one: most things will prove to be cyclical.
- Rule number two: some of the greatest opportunities for gain and loss come when other people forget rule number one.
Prosperity brings expanded lending, which leads to unwise lending, which produces large losses, which makes lenders stop lending, which ends prosperity, and on and on.
We conclude that most of the time, the future will look a lot like the past, with both up cycles and down cycles.

Notes

市场周期是实实在在的存在的，但最终都会自修复（均值回归）
人们总是会认为『这次不一样』，这是很危险的

Yang

Chapter 9. Awareness of the Pendulum

My Top n Quotes

In fact, I’ve recently boiled down the main risks in investing to two: the risk of losing money and the risk of missing opportunity
- 08年金融危机前（05，06，07）大家害怕 missing opportunity
- 金融危机后大家害怕 losing money
What the wise man does in the beginning, the fool does in the end

Yang

Chapter 10. Combating negative influences

My Top n Quotes

Many people possess the intellect needed to analyze data, but far fewer are able to look more deeply into things and withstand the powerful influence of psychology. To say this another way, many people will reach similar cognitive conclusions from their analysis, but what they do with those conclusions varies all over the lot because psychology influences them differently
Some participate as an intellectual exercise or because it’s a good field in which to vent their competitiveness, but even they keep score in terms of money. Money may not be everyone’s goal for its own sake, but it is everyone’s unit of account. People who don’t care about money generally don’t go into investing.
People who might be perfectly happy with their lot in isolation become miserable when they see others do better
They ignored the fact that not all the companies could win, that there would be a lengthy shake-out period, that profitability wouldn’t come easily from providing services gratis, and that shares in money-losing companies valued at high multiples of sales (since there were no earnings) carried great danger.
Like so many other things described in this book, there’s no simple solution: no formula that will tell you when the market has gone to an irrational extreme, no foolproof tool that will keep you on the right side of these decisions, no magic pill that will protect you against destructive emotions. As Charlie Munger says, “It’s not supposed to be easy.”

Notes

这一章真的非常精彩！从技术角度讲，很多人可以通过分析得出相识的认知结论，但是个体间的心理差异，承受力的不同，会导致他们在这些结论的基础上采取不同的行动。作者讲到了如下的因素：
- 第一，对金钱的渴望，尤其是这种渴望变成贪婪的时候
- 第二，与贪婪对应的恐惧，这不是理性，明智和风险规避，恐惧更像是恐慌
- 第三，人们有容易放弃逻辑，历史和规范的倾向（放弃怀疑）
- 第四，从众，而不是坚持己见，作者列举了一个非常有意思的心理测试，对一组人进行测试，让他们对看到的情况做出判断，不过其中只有一个人是被测对象，其他人都是托儿。结果被测试的对象就会处于两难境地，真正的被测对象忽略自身所见与其他人保持一致的比值很高，即使其他人明显是错误的。（羊群效应）
- 第五，嫉妒，也许贪婪有很大的负面影响，但它也有激励人们积极进取的一面，但是与别人比较就是人的天性中危害最大的一个方面
  - 一个人在孤立的情况下感到快乐的人，当看到别人做的更好的时，可能变得痛苦不堪（看到别人赚钱比自己多，大多难以坐视不管）
- 第六，自负
- 第七，妥协
- 最后作者还以90年代末的科技泡沫为例描述了上诉心理是如何影响股市的
那么我们要如何对待这些促使人们做出愚蠢投资的心理冲动呢？首先要认识他们，然后是要认清现实。其次是要认清现实。当然作者还提到了橡树资本管理公司里实践的Tips：
- a strongly held sense of intrinsic value
- insistence on acting as you should when price diverges from value
- enough conversance with past cycles—gained at first from reading and talking to veteran investors, and later through experience—to know that market excesses are ultimately punished, not rewarded
- a thorough understanding of the insidious effect of psychology on the investing process at market extremes
- a promise to remember that when things seem “too good to be true,” they usually are
- willingness to look wrong while the market goes from misvalued to more misvalued (as it invariably will), and
- like-minded friends and colleagues from whom to gain support (and for you to support).

Yang

Chapter 11. Contrarianism

My Top n Quotes

You must do things not just because they’re the opposite of what the crowd is doing, but because you know why the crowd is wrong. Only then will you be able to hold firmly to your views and perhaps buy more as your positions take on the appearance of mistakes and as losses accrue rather than gains. （知其然，知其所以然）
by the time the knife has stopped falling, the dust has settled and the uncertainty has been resolved, there’ll be no great bargains left. （当一切尘埃落地，机会已然消失）

Yang

Chapter 12. Finding Bargains

My Top n Quotes

the best opportunities are usually found among things most others won’t do（真理~ ）
Since bargains provide value at unreasonably low prices—and thus unusual ratios of return to risk—they represent the Holy Grail for investors. （这句话很好的总结和本章）

Notes

如何寻找便宜货？作者high level的提到了如下的方法
1. 寻找潜在的投资清单（定义可行集合），包含价值和风险评估
2. 从中选择投资
3. 说了好像跟没说似的，好在作者在下文还是提到了一些tips😅
这里作者又提到了投资估值过低的资产的重要性，如何那么寻找低价资产？
- little known and not fully understood;
- fundamentally questionable on the surface;
- controversial, unseemly or scary;
- deemed inappropriate for “respectable” portfolios;
- unappreciated, unpopular and unloved;
- trailing a record of poor returns; and
- recently the subject of disinvestment, not accumulation.
作者还提到了一个点，『Investment bargains needn’t have anything to do with high quality. In fact, things tend to be cheaper if low quality has scared people away. 便宜不需要和高品质有任何关系』

Yang

Chapter 13. Patient Opportunism

My Top n Quotes

All day you wait for the pitch you like; then, when the fielders are asleep, you step up and hit it. （自然界里顶尖的捕食者也会使用同样的策略，耐心等待，然后一击致命）
Patient opportunism, buttressed by a contrarian attitude and a strong balance sheet, can yield amazing profits during meltdowns.（总结全章again）

Notes

上一章提到寻找便宜货，这一章就紧接着添加限制条件，『耐心等待机会，往往是最好的策略』
当然，等待机会带来的负面影响就是，机会可能会被错过，特别是在繁荣时期。客户可能就会失去耐心，那应该如何应对？作者认为
- 进行有效的客户管理，降低他们的预期
- 相对失去失去一个获利机会，投资失败更应该引起重视
感叹：作者对投资者的心理剖析太深入了。。

Yang

Chapter 14. Knowing what you don’t know

My Top n Quotes

The more we concentrate on smaller-picture things, the more it’s possible to gain a knowledge advantage. (往往也也是大多数人不擅长的事情，需要具备良好的洞察力和好奇心)
“two things that might make you think twice about heeding the winners’ forecasts.” First, they generally failed to make accurate predictions in surveys other than the one they won. And second, half the time in the surveys they didn’t win, their forecasts were much more wrong than even the inaccurate consensus. （这句话笑死 😆 ，俗话说，一高遮五丑，一瘦遮七丑，一富遮百丑，一胖毁所有。所以识人看物，不能只看表面）
Acknowledging the boundaries of what you can know—and working within those limits rather than venturing beyond—can give you a great advantage.

Notes

Knowing what you don't know 中文版的翻译是认识预测的局限性，但我觉得本章的内容更像是在讨论 – 要正确认识自我，要承认自己是无知的，不能高估自己的认知和能力。

Yang

Chapter 15. Having a Sense for where we stand

My Top n Quotes

We may never know where we’re going, but we’d better have a good idea where we are.
The philosopher Santayana said, “Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” In very much the same way, I believe those who are unaware of what’s going on around them are destined to be buffeted by it.（反思：有多少次我们在重复犯错？）
Simply put, we must strive to understand the implications of what’s going on around us. When others are recklessly confident and buying aggressively, we should be highly cautious; when others are frightened into inaction or panic selling, we should become aggressive. （再次强调，逆向操作）

Notes

本章提到了很多金融相关的案例，看得模模糊糊的。不过作者提到的了解自己，同时了解身边正在发生的事情是非常重要的，这一点其实是普世价值。这要求我们要丰富自己的信息来源，同时确保信息的客观性和准确性。只有这样，我们才能做出相对接近正确的判断。

Yang

Chapter 16. Appreciating the Role of luck

My Top n Quotes

Every once in a while, someone makes a risky bet on an improbable or uncertain outcome and ends up looking like a genius. But we should recognize that it happened because of luck and boldness, not skill.
In the short run, a great deal of investment success can result from just being in the right place at the right time. I always say the keys to profit are aggressiveness, timing and skill, and someone who has enough aggressiveness at the right time doesn’t need much skill.
We should spend our time trying to find value among the knowable— industries, companies and securities—rather than base our decisions on what we expect from the less-knowable macro world of economies and broad market performance.

Yang

Chapter 19. Adding value

My Top n Quotes

The performance of investors who add value is asymmetrical. The percentage of the market’s gain they capture is higher than the percentage of loss they suffer.(真实！)
According to theory, the risk that markets compensate for is the risk that is intrinsic and inescapable in investing: systematic or “non- diversifiable” risk. The rest of risk comes from decisions to hold individual stocks: nonsystematic risk. Since that risk can be eliminated by diversifying, why should investors be compensated with additional return for bearing it?
Asymmetry—better performance on the upside than on the downside relative to what your style alone would produce—should be every investor’s goal.(很好的总结，不管你是什么风格的投资者，都要扬长避短)

Notes

y = α+β*x，这个公式很好的评估了投资表现，α表示个人投资能力（技术相关性收益），β表示证券组合多市场波动的相对敏感度（大于1表示风险偏好更高，小于1表示相对更稳健），x代表市场平均收益。
短期的收益无法评价投资者的好坏，激进的投资者在牛市收益比稳健型投资者更高，但稳健型投资者在熊市损失更少。所以评估应该是看长期的收益。以及看他们如何适用市场。（Aggressive investors with skill do well in bull markets but don’t give it all back in corresponding bear markets, while defensive investors with skill lose relatively little in bear markets but participate reasonably in bull markets.）

Chapter 20. Reasonable expectations

My Top n Quotes

people regularly suspend disbelief and accept unreasonable expectations when they’re told free money is available
that fact alone often causes others to hide behind the excuse that “it’s not our job to catch falling knives.” After all, it’s when knives are falling that the greatest bargains are available.
Perfection in investing is generally unobtainable; the best we can hope for is to make a lot of good investments and exclude most of the bad ones.
we never say, “It’s cheap today, but we think it’ll be cheaper in six months, so we’ll wait.” It’s just not realistic to expect to be able to buy at the bottom.（只要认定价格合适就可以买入，而不用等待）

Notes

为什么会庞氏骗局会屡见不鲜？因为当免费午餐出现的时候，人们便会暂停怀疑，接受不合理的期望。
完美的投资（在最底部买入）是很难的，我们需要做的是好的投资（而不是完美的），避免坏的投资。
合理的预期非常重要，不能盲目追求高收益，当高收益摆在面前，我们需要保持怀疑：为什么是我？自己有对等能力的能力获得这份收益吗？are they too good to be true?