[投资最重要的事] xuemei的读书笔记

xuemei

introduction

投资最重要的事情是每个人都该了解并实践的，且投资是生活中必不可少的事情，这次读书会的书单吸引了我
。这次的目的是：学习英语+提升财商，争取把金融小白的标签摘掉，以下是我读后感，每个章节完成后都会花点时间来整理笔记。

之前了解些投资方面的知识，知道投资最重要是： ‘心理战术’，面对钱的时候很少有人能保持理性思考，好比天平，左边是理性思维右边是金钱诱惑，最后天平永远偏向右边。看到这句话：“A philosophy has to be the sum of many ideas accumulated over a long period of time from a variety of sources. ”，我感触很深，厚积薄发才是长期主义的体现，积累各种经验并创建自己的认知框架，经过岁月的洗礼你也会成为自己心中的成功人士，过程总是充满惊喜和心酸，因此另外一句话出现在脑海中：‘you must be aware of what's taking place in the world and of what results those events lead to’, 如果自身知识储备不够是无法到达这种境界的，比如买股票，很多人都在研究行业方向，国家的政策但是真正转赚的满盆钵体的人有多少呢？这就涉及下一章节“Second-Level Thinking”。‘’Keeping your eyes open also increases the probability that you will be prepared for something that has never before occurred“ 这句话教会了怎么提升自己的认知，’keep your eyes open‘, 俗话说：每个人都赚不到认知范围外的钱，因此open your eyes是提升认知的充分必要条件。

想要收集的两句话如下：

Experience is what you got when you didn’t get what you wanted
The most valuable lessons are learned in tough times

Sophie

I like your quotes!

xuemei

Sophie I also like your summary 😃

xuemei

Chapter1 Second-Level Thinking
In some pursuits, getting to the front of the pack means more schooling, more time in the gym or the library, better nutrition, more perspiration, greater stamina or better equipment. But in investing, where these things count for less, it calls for more perceptive thinking. 这句话突破了我的知识盲区，why？我认为培养自己敏锐的洞察力必须具有足够的知识储备和信息量，然而这些储备的来源都是背后付出的努力，流下的汗水。后面我改变了这一想法，世间之事没有对错之分，可能现在的我不能接受这一点，但是随着年龄的增长，经验的积累我会逐渐的接受这种观点。第二层思维模式就是希望投资者 deep,complex,convolued and take a great many things into account in your life. 我认为不管在投资中，生活中，工作中都应该时刻保持这种思维模式，具有’透过现象看本质的能力‘。

经典句

you can also invert this-in addition to asking yourself how and why you should succeed, ask yourself why others fail.
you must doing exceptional ability,insight or foresight. But because it's exceptional, few people have it.

xuemei

Chapter2 Market Efficiency and its Limitations

疑问

为什么很少有评论家将市场研究和如何积极管理资产的观点联系起来？

2.为什么效率越高的市场往往会错估资产的价值？
高效率的市场给人们一种乐观的心态，让人们暂时忘却了风险的存在，因而错估了资产的价值。

What are the things that determine the movements of one currency versus another?
1. future growth rates. 2. inflation rates

观点

有效市场和无效市场是相对存在的，两者对于参与者是相辅相成的，无效市场的错误价格导致一些人获利一些人亏本。有效市场的信息，机会对等，导致有些人能抓住机会盈利有些人没有控制住风险而亏本。
伦理存在的目的让我们有一个做决定的支撑点，而不是禁锢我们的思想。
这个故事让我印象深刻，有效市场通过这个故事被完美的诠释：
学生：“地上是10美元钞票吗？”学生问。
教授：“不，那不可能是10美元钞票，即使有，之前肯定早已经被人捡起来了。”
教授走了。学生捡起了钞票，去喝了杯啤酒

摘要

there’s no such thing as investing skill (commonly referred to today as alpha) that would enable
someone to beat the market, all the difference in return between one investment and another—or between one person’s portfolio and another’s—is attributable to differences in risk

xuemei

Chapter 3 value

疑问

最好的额投资课程将教会我们什么？
如何评估一项资产和如何考虑市场价格的变动
低买高卖，什么是低？什么是高？
低与高是相对概念，针对于某个资产的内部价值而定，市场价格低于资产的内部价格就买进，高于内部价格就卖出。
什么是随机漫步假说（random walk hypothesis）
过去的股票价格变动对未来的股票价格变动没有实质性的帮助，意味着一股只票价格已经上涨了十天，但是并不能说明明天股票价格会涨或者跌。
什么是动量投资（momentum investing）
与随机漫步假说是相矛盾的
价值投资是什么？
投资者想办法了解和探索证券的当前资产的内在价值
成长投资各是什么？
投资者寻找哪些证券在将来会增值

难点

we hear far less than we did in the past about people basing decision primarily on what price movements tell them. -- 不知道如何翻译

摘要

Don't expect immediate success

xuemei

Chapter 4 the relationship between price and value

疑问

价值与价格之间的区别？
价格是价值的货币体现，举个例子：生产一个产品，价值根据有形资产和无线资产确定也称为一件产品的成
本。产品需要销售给客户，就需要根据价值定一个能盈利的价格。只有赋予了价格的产品才称之为商品
最重要的事情是什么？
a). 市场总会回归到正常状态
b). 最危险的事情: 价格持续高升并让人觉得每一件事都是恰到好处且没有任何错误
c). 投资人性化是关键的一面（the human side of investing is the critical side）

术语

市盈率：每股收益/每股的股价(earnings / sported price)
漂亮50(the nifty-fifty stocks) in 1969
Internet stock in 1999
Mortgage vehicles in 2006

摘要

The safest and most potentially profitable thing is to buy something when no one likes it. Given time, its popularity, and thus its price, can only go one way up.
You must invest the time and energy to understand market psychology
Trying to buy below value isn’t infallible, but it is the best chance we have

xuemei

Chapter 5 understanding risk

感触

1.风险对于一些投资者来说是风险，对于另外一些投资者来说是机会，面对许多舆论的时要启用第二层思维模式去窥探资产的内在价值并做出适合自己的决策
2.人性是贪婪的，这是人性的弱点，因为贪婪导致了股票上升的时候舍弃了谨慎的态度，以为风险不存在，殊不知这才是最大的风险。
3.优秀的投资者清楚：投资方法不是一成不变的，即使他们有一段收益颇多的历史也只是代表过去而不是现在
4.在两三年内获取超额收益的投资管理人并不能说明什么，有可能是运气好或者赶上投资的好时机，巴菲特说：只有潮水退去你才知道谁在裸泳。相反两三年没有获益的投资管理人也不能说明投资能力差，只有长期获益的投资管理人员才是值得信赖的，比如10年，20年。。。

问题

是什么导致了损失的风险？
1.基本面的疲软的时候，并不一定导致的损失风险(指商品销售不旺或货币汇率呈下降趋势)，因为基本面疲软会导致投资价格低，这个时候正是投资的最佳时期。

2.在健康的宏观环境下风险也是存在的，过于乐观，对风险的低估，一个小小的不利发展都足以造成严重破坏
因此在投资的时候要花费时间和精力去理解投资组合背后的过程，并分析其中存在的潜在风险并判断这种风险对自己影响的范围，理性的投资。

3.高风险就是高收益吗？
没有看这本书之前我认为高风险就是高收益，看完这章后我改变了这种想法，高风险不一定就是高收益，只有启用第二层思维模式分析了投资项的内在价值并确定了风险范围和内在价值的同时这句话才是有效的，否则高风险可能产生高收益或者低收益，有句话说的很赞：有投资就有风险，如果你能确定高收益率那风险也不存在了。

4.什么构成了风险？
应对未来（investing consists of exactly on thing: dealing with future）

5.应对风险的三步骤

理解风险
识别风险
控制风险

6.为什么风险评估在投资过程是是最基本的因素？

风险是一件很坏的事情
当你选择投资的时候你就要承担与收益对应的潜在风险
当你考虑投资结果的时候，回报率本身就是那么多，承担的风险也必须加以评估

7.何为风险？
对于一些投资者来说没有达到自己预期收益就存在风险，但是实际风险真的是这样的吗？我认为风险是一个很抽象的概念，每个人对风险的定义不一样导致最终的收益不一样，对风险的低估和对个人预估风险能力的高估都会导致风险的产生

了解内容

正态分布和概念分布

xuemei

Chapter 6 recognizing risk

问题

1.怎么识别风险？(how do you measure that risk?)
a). 受过教育的且熟练的对未来的估计
b). 量化的标准是不存在的，因为每个人对风险的定义是不一样的。比如：一些投资者在某个地方相遇，并得出了风险指数，遇见另外一组投资者，他们的风险指数一样吗？答案：不一定，所以风险和风险决策不能机械化，也不能使用计算机就能预测出来的。
c). 风险是一种假象，风险是主观的，隐藏的和不能被量化的。有些时候看似风轻云淡，却潜藏着巨大的风险。
2.面对风险我们应该怎么办？
a). 根据经验
b).使用第二思维模式

3.为什么风险难以评估？
a). 风险仅仅存在将来,它是不可能很确定将来将发生什么
b). 深思熟虑做的决定不确定能否规避风险
c). 预测往往围绕着历史规范和案例而展开，因此对于风险预估过低或者过高
d). 人们预测最坏的事情是根据过去发生的事情作为基准，但是这不意味着是最糟糕的情况，比如：听说只有一匹马参赛，作者的爸爸去赌马，结果马跑到一半的时候冲出围栏逃跑了。
e). 人们高估了他们评估风险的能力和理解他们从未见过的能力
f). 大多数认为风险是一种赚钱的工具

why it’s essential to apply uncommon, second-level thinking to the subject.？
People vastly overestimate their ability to recognize risk and underestimate what it takes to avoid it; thus, they accept risk unknowingly and in so doing contribute to its creation

术语

Sharper Radio(夏普比率): 投资组合的超额收益(高于‘无风险利率或短期国库利率的收益’)与收益标准差的比率
收益标准差: 过去一段时期内,基金每个月的收益率相对于平均月收益率的偏差幅度的大小
索蒂诺比率(Sortino ratio): 衡量投资组合相对表现的方法,运用下偏标准差而不是总标准差
正态分布(the normal distribution): a specific bell-shaped distribution with very definite statistical properties
标准分布： the standard distribution
风险溢价（risk premium）
纳斯达克： NASDAQ
市盈率：price/earnings ratios
贝尔斯登基金： Bear Stream funds

摘要

the relation between different kinds of investment and the risk of loss is entirely too indefinite and too variable with changing conditions, to permit of sound mathematical formulation
great investing requires both generating returns and controlling risk. so recognizing risk is an absolute prerequisite for controlling it.
awareness of the relationship between price and value whether for a single security or an entire market-is an essential component of dealing successfully with risk.
the feeling of safety tends to increase risk while the awareness of risk tends to reduce it
It’s only when the tide goes out that you find out who’s been swimming naked.
Risk cannot be eliminated; it just gets transferred and spread
There are few things as risky as the widespread belief that there’s no risk.
8.No matter how good fundamentals may be, humans exercising their greed and propensity to err have the ability to screw things up.

翻译难点
with new low-grade debt issues repriced, postponed or pulled, leaving bridge loans unrefinanced
随着新发行的低等级债卷被重新定价、延期或取消，过渡性贷款无法再融资

xuemei

Chapter 7 controlling risk

感触

Germs cause illness, but germs themselves are not illness
’细菌不是疾病，但是会造成疾病’这句话揭示了生物的底层逻辑，每个事物都是独立的个体，只有’标的‘存在时才能突显某个物体的作用和本身的含义，类似好人和坏人，何为好人？何为坏人？这两者的定义都是建立在事物产生的结果而定的。
an excellent investor may be one who-rather than reporting higher returns than others-achieve superior performance in down markets
能做到低风险高收益的确很难需要拥有别人没有的洞察力和消除风险的能力。在贪婪面前很少有人能抵御诱惑，因此市场价格无限上升的过程中人们自动屏蔽谨慎选择了高收益无风险的模式，往往这个时候才是最危险的，如巴菲特说：只有当潮水退去才知道谁在裸泳
the road to long-term investment success runs through risk control more than through aggressiveness
‘长期投资的成功之路更多的是通过风险控制而不是进取心’，如果不考虑金融行业我不赞成这个观点， why? 因为风险控制的前提是洞察力和知识储备，这两者的来源就是进取心驱动下获取的。

疑问

How do you enjoy the full gain in up markets while simultaneously being positioned to achieve superior performance in down markets?
answer: by capturing the up-market gain while bearing below-market risk
what is the distinction between risk control and risk avoidance?
risk control is the best route to loss avoidance. risk avoidance is likely to lead to return avoidance as well

摘要

you have got to go out on a limb sometimes because that’s where the fruit is

xuemei

Chapter 8 Being attention to cycles

感触

cycles always prevail eventually, Nothing goes in one direction forever. Trees don’t grow to the sky, Few things go to zero.
世间就没有永恒的事物存在，社会在进步、科技在发展、环境在改变、人的思想也随着社会而变化。
you can’t predict, you can prepare
未雨绸缪，投资是一个未来预估事件，未来又是一个不确定事件，因此只有预估各种可能发生的情况并给予对应的策略，比如：一个屋主买了火险，即使发生了火灾屋主也知道他会获得赔偿，这就是风险转移法，即使发生的概率为1%，内心也是淡然的
maintain some optimism when bargain hunting after large market drops
乐观在任何时候都是重要的，乐观会让你看到好的一面并为之奋斗，我很感谢父母赋予了我这种能力

疑问

there are two concepts we can hold to with confidence
a). most thins will prove to be cyclical
b). some of the greatest opportunities for gain and loss come when other people forget rule number one

摘要

success carries within itself the seeds of failure, and failure the seeds of success

xuemei

Chapter 11 contrarianism

感想

It’s our job as contrarians to catch falling knives, hopefully with care and skill. That’s why the concept of intrinsic value is so important. If we hold a view of value that enables us to buy when everyone else is selling and if our view turns out to be right—that’s the route to the greatest rewards earned with the least risk.
这句话最终的落脚点还是内部价值，了解某样资产的内部价值，就算天生下刀子你也有足够的信息接住，即使钟摆达到了熊市的最顶端你也可以保持乐观，在低风险的情况下买入高质量的股票或者资产。因此好些时候某个观点需要无数的论点来做支撑

疑问

what weapons might you marshal on your side to increase your odds?

a strongly held sense of intrinsic value, with stand the psychological influences that affect behavior.
insistence in acting as you should when price diverges from value
enough conversance with past cycles.
a). talk to veteran investors
b). through experience to know that market excesses are ultimately punished, not rewarded
c). understand of insidious effect of psychology on the investing process at market extremes

what are two primary elements in superior investing?
1.seeing some quality that others don’t see or appreciate

having it turn out to be true

术语

1.牛市燥热
2.庞氏骗局

摘要

to buy when others are despondently(沮丧地) selling and to sell when others are euphorically(兴高采烈地) buying takes the greatest courage, but provides the greatest profit.
the key to ultimate success lies in doing the opposite(最终成功的关键在于反其道而行)
the less prudence with which others conduct their affairs, the greater the prudence with which we should conduct our own affairs.
we must think about a things: 1. what might happen. 2. probability that it will happen.

xuemei

Chapter 12 Finding bargains

感想

we can’t change the market, if we want to participate, our only option is to select the best from the possibilities that exist.
仅凭一己之力无法改变市场，因此只有在多变的市场中选择最适合自己的。类似人一样，你没法改变所处的环境，只有通过寻找最适合自己的方式去适应环境

问答

what is the best a list of portfolio?
a). a list of potential investments.
b).estimate of their intrinsic value.
c). a sense for how their prices compare with their intrinsic value.
d). an understanding of the risks involved in each and of the effect their inclusion.