Chapter 1 Second-level thinking
Key Notes:
Second-level thinking第2层思维
• What is second level thinking ?
Take a great many things into account :必须比大众(=市场)想的更多
• How to distinguish yourself from other
A 2-by-2 matrix
Hold nonconsensus views regarding value and accurate (非常规且正确😅)
Reflection:
To achieve superior investment reture, must be a second -level think.
主要论述第二层思维的重要性;通常大众投资者是第一层思维,有着广泛而相同的思维模式,大众投资者就是marketing本身,第一层思维的投资者赢不过市场。
如何培养第二层思维,第一章并没提及,只是说要有非常规且正确的思维方式?这个很难
Chapter 2
Understanding market efficient and limitations
KEY Notes:
• the efficient market hypothesis 有效市场假说理论
• info is reflected fully and immediately in the market ,market price =the intrinsic value of assets 信息的完全披露和快速传播,资产的绝对价格和资产间的相对价格是公平的。所以市场价反映就是资产内在价值
• the efficient market hypothesis links with second-level thinking
reflect the consensue. 反映集体意识,无法超越市场
• the most upshot from the efficient market hypothesis : you cant beat market ?
• efficient market hypothesis 在特定某些资产才符合
• second-level thinking to achieve superior results, have to edge in either info or analysis,or both.
• second-level thinking depend on inefficient 第2层思维取决于无效性
• inefficient=a high-flown way of saying the market is prone to mistake that anbe taken advantage of 市场易犯可利用资源的错误
因为证明市场价格永远正确是不可能的,一个存在错误及错误定价的市场,被非凡洞察力的人战胜
Inefficient market :无效市场
1Market price are ofen wrong
2.the risk-adjusted reture on one asset class can be far our line with those of ther asset classes
3 some investors can consistently outperform others
• Inefficient market provide raw material -mispricing ,Its possible to find bargains or overpay
• Efficiencises exist today doesn’t mean remain forvever 今天的有效性并不代表明天的有效性
• Inefficiency is a necessary condition fie superior investing 无效性是杰出投资的必要条件
• Balance!balance from applying informd common sense ,
• Notion of market efficiency has relevance , limit efforts to relatively inefficient marksts where hard work and skill would payoff best 有效市场假说是相对,在无效市场付出技术和努力才能最好的回报
Reflection:
论述the efficient market hypothesis,需要一些特定的资产才能满足有效市场理论,有效市场理论像是说市场是不能打败的。但如果联系第二层思维来看,无效市场是市场上的可利用资源的错误(市场缺陷、错误定价等),在无效市场上努力、掌握技术可能获得最好的回报。但作者提出警惕也不要忽视有效市场假说理论的信息,可以辅助我们做决策,警惕自以为是。