第一/二章
Chapter 1
…perceptive thinking … at what I call the second level.
You must think of something they haven’t thought of, see things they miss or bring insight they don’t possess. You have to react differently and behave differently. In short, being right may be a necessary condition for investment success, but it won’t be sufficient. You must be more right than others … which by definition means your thinking has to be different.
似乎是适用于所有需要打败对手的方法。
就投资而言，对愿意投入大量精力的人固然如此。对于普通人不想过多投入但又想投资并获得回报有什么途径？指数基金？花钱找人打理？
I conceptualize the situation as a simple 2-by-2 matrix:
Chapter 2
The bottom line for me is that, although the more efficient markets often misvalue assets, it’s not easy for any one person—working with the same information as everyone else and subject to the same psychological influences—to consistently hold views that are different from the consensus and closer to being correct.
同样也一件非常的难做的事情，和大多数人持有不通的想法很不容易，如何让自己坚定的相信自己的选择是正常的非常关键。
Inverting these conditions yields a test of market inefficiency. For instance, in the first case, if an asset is not widely known and broadly followed, it might be inefficiently priced; in the second case, if an asset is controversial, taboo, or socially unacceptable, it might be inefficiently priced; and so on for each of the other two cases.
非常简单的反向思考。不一定都适用，可以多练习
To me, describing a market as inefficient is a high-flown way of saying the market is prone to mistakes that can be taken advantage of.
就像是看事到情好的一面一样。用积极的态度面对糟糕的情况，总是会看到一些正面的事情。
But it’s impossible to argue that market prices are always right. In fact, if you look at the four assumptions just listed, one stands out as particularly tenuous: objectivity. Human beings are not clinical computing machines. Rather, most people are driven by greed, fear, envy and other emotions that render objectivity impossible and open the door for significant mistakes.
别受情绪影响，客观，不贪心，不妒忌，不攀比，不焦虑。🙏
In the end, I’ve come to an interesting resolution: Efficiency is not so universal that we should give up on superior performance. At the same time, efficiency is what lawyers call a “rebuttable presumption”—something that should be presumed to be true until someone proves otherwise. Therefore, we should assume that efficiency will impede our achievement unless we have good reason to believe it won’t in the present case.
可反驳的推定，一种不同的思维方式